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"Not with your lucky arrow," said Nobby

' "That's right But, just out of interest, how far down is it, d'you think?" said Colon

"About thirty feet, I'd say Give or take"

"Thirty feet" Colon nodded slowly "That's what I'd reckon And it's deep, is it?"

"Very deep, I've heard"

"I'll take your word for it It looks pretty mucky I'd hate to have to jump in it"

Carrot slapped hi hie? Do you want to live for ever?"

"Dunno Ask ood job we've got your lucky arrow, then!" said Carrot

"Hmm?" said Colon, who seemed to be in a miserable daydreaood job we've got a last desperate million-to-one chance to rely on, or we'd really be in trouble!" "Oh, yes," said Nobby sadly "Lucky old us"

The Patrician lay back A couple of rats dragged a cushion under his head

"Things are rather bad outside, I gather," he said

"Yes," said Viht You're the safest ed another knife in a crack in the stones and tested his weight carefully, while Lord Vetinari looked on with interest He'd et six feet off the floor and up to a level with the grille

Now he started to hack at the mortar around the bars

The Patrician watched him for a while, and then took a book off the little shelf beside him Since the rats couldn't read the library he'd been able to assenore fresh knowledge He found his bookes, and read a few pages

After a while he found it necessary to brush a few crumbs of mortar off the book, and looked up

"Are you achieving success?" he inquired politely

Virille was a grubby courtyard, barely lighter than the cell There was a midden in one corner, but currently it looked very attractive More attractive than the dungeon, at any rate An honestthese days It was probably allegorical, or so

He stabbed, stabbed, stabbed The knife blade twanged and shook in his hand

The Librarian scratched his ar probleainst book thieves and that rage still burned But the seditious thought had occurred to hiainst books were the worst kind of criht, perhaps, to be postponed

It occurred to him that, while of course what humans chose to do to one another was all one to him, there were certain activities that should be curtailed in case the perpetrators got over-confident and started doing things like that to books, too

The Librarian stared at his badge again, and gave it a gentle nibble in the optimistic hope that it had become edible No doubt about it, he had a Duty to the captain

The captain had always been kind to hie, too

Yes

There were times when an ape had to do what a utan threw a co away into the darkness

The sun rose higher, rolling through the mists and stale smoke like a lost balloon

The rank sat in the shade of a chi ti the contents of a nostril, Carrot riting a letter ho

After a while he shifted his weight uneasily and said, "I’ve fought of a probleeant Colon looked wretched "Weeell, what if it's not a million-to-one chance?" he said

Nobby stared at hiht, last desperate ht, no problem, butwell, it's pretty wossname, specific I mean, isn't it?" "You tell me," said Nobby "What if it's just a thousand-to-one chance?" said Colon agonisedly "What?"

"Anyone ever heard of a thousand-to-one shot coeant," he said "No-one ever saw a thousand-to-one chance coainst it are-" his lips reed Nobby "So it'd only work if it's your actual eant "I suppose that's right," said Nobby "So 999,943-to-one, for exaan Carrot shook his head "Wouldn't have a hope No-one ever said, 'It's a 999,943-to-one chance but it ht just work' "

They stared out across the city in the silence of ferocious mental calculation

"We could have a real problem here," said Colon eventually

Carrot started to scribble furiously When questioned, he explained at length about how you found the surface area of a dragon and then tried to esti any one spot "Aihed

"In that case it's got to be a lot less than a million-to-one chance," said Carrot "It could be a hundred-to-one If the dragon's flying slowly and it's a big spot, it could be practically a certainty" Colon's lips shaped themselves around the phrase,

It's a certainty but it ht just work He shook his head "Nah," he said

"So e've got to do, then," said Nobby slowly, "is adjust the odds "