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HARI SELDON born in the 11,988th year of the Galactic Era; died 12,069 The dates are iven in terms of the current Foundational Era as 79 to the year 1 FE Born to middle-class parents on Helicon, Arcturus sector (where his father, in a legend of doubtful authenticity, was a tobacco grower in the hydroponic plants of the planet), he early showed a his ability are innue of two, he is said to have

Undoubtedly his greatest contributions were in the field of psychohistory Seldon found the field little ue axioms; he left it a profound statistical science

The best existing authority we have for the details of his life is the biography written by Gaal Dornick who as a young reat

ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

All quotations from the Encyclopedia Galactica here reproduced are taken from the 116th Edition published in 1020 FE by the Encyclopedia Galactica Publishing Co, Terminus, with permission of the publishers

His name was Gaal Dornick and he was just a country boy who had never seen Trantor before That is, not in real life He had seen it many times on the hyper-video, and occasionally in tre an I of a Galactic Council Even though he had lived all his life on the world of Synnax, which circled a star at the edges of the Blue Drift, he was not cut off from civilization, you see At that time, no place in the Galaxy was

There were nearly twenty-five million inhabited planets in the Galaxy then, and not one but owed allegiance to the Empire whose seat was on Trantor It was the last halfcentury in which that could be said

To Gaal, this trip was the undoubted cli, scholarly life He had been in space before so that the trip, as a voyage and nothing more, meant little to him To be sure, he had traveled previously only as far as Synnax’s only satellite in order to get the data on the e which he needed for his dissertation, but space-travel was all one whether one travelled half a ht years

He had steeled hih hyper-space, a phenomenon one did not experience in simple interplanetary trips The Jump remained, and would probably re between the stars Travel through ordinary space could proceed at no rate ht (a bit of scientific knowledge that belonged aotten dawn of human history), and that would have meant years of travel between even the nearest of inhabited systeion that was neither space nor ti, one could traverse the length of the Galaxy in the interval between two neighboring instants of time

Gaal had waited for the first of those Juently in his sto jar, a little internal kick which ceased an instant before he could be sure he had felt it That was all

And after that, there was only the ship, large and glistening; the cool production of 12,000 years of Iress; and himself, with his doctorate in reat Hari Seldon to come to Trantor and join the vast and somewhatfor after the disappointht of Trantor He haunted the View-room The steel shutter-lids were rolled back at announced ti the hard brilliance of the stars, enjoying the incredible hazy swarloht in mid-motion and stilled forever, At one tiaseous nebula within five light years of the ship, spreading over thelike distantout of sight two hours later, after another Juht of Trantor’s sun was that of a hard, white speck all but lost in a nizable only because it was pointed out by the ship’s guide The stars were thick here near the Galactic center But with each Ju theh and said, "View-room will be closed for the re"

Gaal had followed after, clutching at the sleeve of the white uniform with the Spaceship-and-Sun of the Empire on it

He said, "Would it be possible to let me stay? I would like to see Trantor"

The officer smiled and Gaal flushed a bit It occurred to him that he spoke with a provincial accent

The officer said, "We’ll be landing on Trantor by "

"I mean I want to see it from Space"

"Oh Sorry, e it But we’re spinning down, sunside You wouldn’t want to be blinded, burnt, and radiation-scarred all at the same time, would you?"

Gaal started to walk away

The officer called after hiray blur anyway, Kid Why don’t you take a space-tour once you hit Trantor They’re cheap"

Gaal looked back, "Thank you very much"

It was childish to feel disappointed, but childishness comes almost as naturally to a man as to a child, and there was a lump in Gaal’s throat He had never seen Trantor spread out in all its incredibility, as large as life, and he hadn’t expected to have to wait longer

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The ship landed in a medley of noises There was the far-off hiss of the at past the metal of the ship There was the steady drone of the conditioners fighting the heat of friction, and the slower ru deceleration There was the hu in the debarkation rooe,axis of the ship, fro platforht jar that indicated the ship no longer had an independentway to planetary gravity for hours Thousands of passengers had been sitting patiently in the debarkation roo force-fields to accoravitational forces Now they were crawling down curving raage was minor He stood at a desk, as it was quickly and expertly taken apart and put together again His visa was inspected and stamped He himself paid no attention

This was Trantor! The air seereater, than on his hoet used to that He wondered if he would get used to i was trehts Gaal could aline that clouds could form beneath its immensity He could see no opposite wall; justfloor till it faded out in haze

The ain He sounded annoyed He said, "Move on, Dornick" He had to open the visa, look again, before he remembered the name

Gaal said, "Where where"

The ht and third left"

Gaal h in nothingness and reading, "TAXIS TO ALL POINTS"

A figure detached itself from anonymity and stopped at the desk, as Gaal left The ure nodded in return and followed the young irant

He was in time to hear Gaal’s destination

Gaal found hin said, "Supervisor" The n referred did not look up He said, "Where to?"

Gaal wasn’t sure, but even a few seconds hesitationin line behind him

The Supervisor looked up, "Where to?"

Gaal’s funds were low, but there was only this one night and then he would have a job He tried to sound nonchalant, "A good hotel, please"

The Supervisor was uniood Name one"

Gaal said, desperately, "The nearest one, please"

The Supervisor touched a button A thin line of light forhtened and dimmed in different colors and shades A ticket was shoved into Gaal’s hands It glowed faintly

The Supervisor said, "One point twelve"

Gaal fuo?"

"Follow the light The ticket will keep glowing as long as you’re pointed in the tight direction"

Gaal looked up and began walking There were hundreds creeping across the vast floor, following their individual trails, sifting and straining theh intersection points to arrive at their respective destinations

His own trail ended Aand new in unstainable plasto-textile, reached for his two bags

"Direct line to the Luxor," he said

The man who followed Gaal heard that He also heard Gaal say, "Fine," and watched him enter the blunt-nosed vehicle

The taxi lifted straight up Gaal stared out the curved, transparent , ht within an enclosed structure and clutching instinctively at the back of the driver’s seat The vastness contracted and the people became ants in randoan to slide backward

There was a wall ahead It began high in the air and extended upward out of sight It was riddled with holes that were the ed into it For a moment, Gaal wondered idly how his driver could pick out one a sobut the past-flashing of a colored signal light to relieve the gloo sound

Gaal leaned forward against deceleration then and the taxi popped out of the tunnel and descended to ground-level once more

"The Luxor Hotel," said the driver, unnecessarily He helped Gaal with his baggage, accepted a tenth-credit tip with a businesslike air, picked up a waiting passenger, and was rising again

In all this, froliinning of the thirteenth millennium, this tendency reached its climax As the center of the Ienerations and located, as it was, toward the central regions of the Galaxy a the most densely populated and industrially advanced worlds of the syste the densest and richest clot of humanity the Race had ever seen

Its urbanization, progressing steadily, had finally reached the ultimate All the land surface of Trantor, 75,000,000 square le city The population, at its height, ell in excess of forty billions This enormous population was devoted almost entirely to the administrative necessities of Empire, and found themselves all too few for the complications of the task (It is to be remembered that the impossibility of proper administration of the Galactic Empire under the uninspired leadership of the later Emperors was a considerable factor in the Fall) Daily, fleets of ships in the tens of thousands brought the produce of twenty agricultural worlds to the dinner tables of Trantor

Its dependence upon the outer worlds for food and, indeed, for all necessities of life, e In the last millennium of the Empire, the monotonously numerous revolts made Emperor after Emperor conscious of this, and Imperial policy became little ular vein

ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

Gaal was not certain whether the sun shone, or, for that ht He was ashamed to ask All the planet seemed to live beneath metal The meal of which he had just partaken had been labelled luncheon, but there were many planets which lived a standard timescale that took no account of the perhaps inconvenient alternation of day and night The rate of planetary turnings differed, and he did not know that of Trantor

At first, he had eagerly followed the signs to the "Sun Roo in artificial radiation He lingered a moment or two, then returned to the Luxor’s main lobby

He said to the room clerk, "Where can I buy a ticket for a planetary tour?"

"Right here"

"When will it start?"

"You just missed it Another one tomorrow Buy a ticket now and we’ll reserve a place for you"

"Oh" Tomorroould be too late He would have to be at the University tomorrow He said, "There wouldn’t be an observation tower or so? I mean, in the open air"

"Sure! Sell you a ticket for that, if you want Better letor not" He closed a contact at his elbow and read the flowing letters that raced across a frosted screen Gaal read with him

The room clerk said, "Good weather Come to think of it, I do believe it’s the dry season now" He added, conversationally, "I don’t bother with the outside o You see it once, you know and that’s all there is to it Here’s your ticket Special elevator in the rear It’s marked ’To the Tower’ Just take it"

The elevator was of the new sort that ran by gravitic repulsion Gaal entered and others flowed in behind him The operator closed a contact For a ravity switched to zero, and then he had weight again in small measure as the elevator accelerated upward Deceleration followed and his feet left the floor He squawked against his will

The operator called out, "Tuck your feet under the railing Can’t you read the sign?"

The others had done so They were s at him as he madly and vainly tried to claainst the chros that stretched across the floor in parallels set two feet apart He had noticed those railings on entering and had ignored them

Then a hand reached out and pulled hiasped his thanks as the elevator came to a halt

He stepped out upon an open terrace bathed in a white brilliance that hurl his eyes Thehand he had just now been the recipient of, was immediately behind him

The man said, kindly, "Plenty of seats"

Gaal closed his ; and said, "It certainly seems so" He started for them automatically, then stopped

He said, "If you don’tI I want to look a bit"

The ood-naturedly, and Gaal leaned out over the shoulder-high railing and bathed hiround It was lost in the ever increasing complexities of man-made structures He could see no horizon other than that of rayness, and he kneas so over all the land-surface of the planet There was scarcely any ainst the sky-but all the busy traffic of billions ofon, he knew, beneath the reen to be seen; no green, no soil, no life other than uely, was the Emperor’s palace, set areen with trees, rainboith flowers It was a small island amid an ocean of steel, but it wasn’t visible froht be ten thousand , he hed noisily, and realized finally that he was on Trantor at last; on the planet which was the center of all the Galaxy and the kernel of the human race He saw none of its weaknesses He saw no ships of food landing He was not aware of a jugular vein delicately connecting the forty billion of Trantor with the rest of the Galaxy He was conscious only of the htiest deed of man; the complete and almost contemptuously final conquest of a world

He came away a little blank-eyed His friend of the elevator was indicating a seat next to himself and Gaal took it

The man smiled "My name is Jerril First time on Trantor?"

"Yes, Mr Jerril"

"Thought so Jerril’s ot the poetic teh They don’t like it Gives them nerves"

"Nerves! My naive thelorious"

"Subjective row up in a corridor, and work in a cell, and vacation in a crowded sun-roo but sky over you ive you a nervous breakdown They make the children come up here once a year, after they’re five I don’t know if it does any good They don’t get enough of it, really, and the first few tiht to start as soon as they’re weaned and have the trip once a week"

He went on, "Of course, it doesn’t really matter What if they never come out at all? They’re happy down there and they run the Eh up do you think we are?"

He said, "Half a mile?" and wondered if that sounded naive

It must have, for Jerril chuckled a little He said, "No Just five hundred feet"

"What? But the elevator took about "

"I know But round level Trantor is tunneled over aNine-tenths of it is out of sight It even works itself out a few miles into the sub-ocean soil at the shorelines In fact, we’re down so low that we can round level and a couple of y we need Did you know that?"

"No, I thought you used atoenerators"

"Did once But this is cheaper"

"I iine so"

"What do you think of it all?" For a ood nature evaporated into shrewdness He looked alain

"Here on vacation? Traveling? Sight-seeing?"

"No exactly At least, I’ve alanted to visit Trantor but I came here primarily for a job"

"Oh?"

Gaal felt obliged to explain further, "With Dr Seldon’s project at the University of Trantor"

"Raven Seldon?"

"Why, no The one I mean is Hari Seldon -The psychohistorian Seldon I don’t know of any Raven Seldon"

"Hari’s the one I , you know He keeps predicting disaster"

"He does?" Gaal was genuinely astonished

"Surely, youto work for him, aren’t you?"

"Well, yes, I’m a mathematician Why does he predict disaster? What kind of disaster?"

"What kind would you think?"

"I’m afraid I wouldn’t have the least idea I’ve read the papers Dr Seldon and his group have published They’re on mathematical theory"

"Yes, the ones they publish"

Gaal felt annoyed He said, "I think I’ll go to my room now Very pleased to have met you"

Jerril waved his arm indifferently in farewell

Gaal found afor him in his room For a moment, he was too startled to put into words the inevitable, "What are you doing here?" that came to his lips

The man rose He was old and almost bald and he walked with a liht and blue

He said, "I am Hari Seldon," an instant before Gaal’s befuddled brain placed the face alongside the memory of the many times he had seen it in pictures

4

PSYCHOHISTORYGaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of lomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli

Implicit in all these definitions is the assu dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatlomerate may be determined by Seldon’s First Theorem whichA further necessary assulomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random

The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the developruent to those of such social and economic forces as

ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

"Good afternoon, sir," said Gaal "I I"

"You didn’t think ere to meet before tomorrow? Ordinarily, ould not have It is just that if we are to use your services, we rows continually more difficult to obtain recruits"

"I don’t understand, sir"

"You were talking to a man on the observation toere you not?"

"Yes His first name is Jerril I know noHe is an agent of the Commission of Public Safety He followed you from the space-port"

"But why? I am afraid I am very confused"

"Did theabout me?"

Gaal hesitated, "He referred to you as Raven Seldon"

"Did he say why?"

"He said you predict disaster"

"I do What does Trantorhis opinion of Trantor Gaal felt incapable of response beyond the bare word, "Glorious"

"You say that without thinking What of psychohistory?"

"I haven’t thought of applying it to the proble man, you will learn to apply psychohistory to all problems as a matter of course �Observe" Seldon removed his calculator pad from the pouch at his belt Men said he kept one beneath his pillow for use in htly worn by use Seldon’s ni the files and rows of buttons that filled its surface Red sylowed out from the upper tier

He said, "That represents the condition of the Empire at present"

He waited

Gaal said finally, "Surely that is not a complete representation"

"No, not colad you do not accept my word blindly However, this is an approximation which will serve to demonstrate the proposition Will you accept that?"

"Subject to my later verification of the derivation of the function, yes" Gaal was carefully avoiding a possible trap

"Good Add to this the known probability of Ial revolt, the contemporary recurrence of periods of econo rate of planetary explorations, the"

He proceeded As each ite to life at his touch, and ed

Gaal stopped him only once "I don’t see the validity of that set-transformation"

Seldon repeated it more slowly

Gaal said, "But that is done by way of a forbidden sociooperation"

"Good You are quick, but not yet quick enough It is not forbidden in this connection Let me do it by expansions"

The procedure was er and at its end, Gaal said, humbly, "Yes, I see now"

Finally, Seldon stopped "This is Trantor three centuries from no do you interpret that? Eh?" He put his head to one side and waited

Gaal said, unbelievingly, "Total destruction! But but that is impossible Trantor has never been "

Seldon was filled with the intense exciterown old "Come, come You sa the result was arrived at Put it into words Forget the symbolism for a moment"

Gaal said, "As Trantor becomes more specialized, it be comes more vulnerable, less able to defend itself Further, as it becomes more and reater prize As the Imperial succession becoreat families more rah And what of the numerical probability of total destruction within three centuries?"

"I couldn’t tell"

"Surely you can perform a field-differentiation?"

Gaal felt himself under pressure He was not offered the calculator pad It was held a foot frorow slick with sweat

He said, "About 85?"

"Not bad," said Seldon, thrusting out a lower lip, "but not good The actual figure is 925"

Gaal said, "And so you are called Raven Seldon? I have seen none of this in the journals"

"But of course not This is unprintable Do you suppose the Imperium could expose its shakiness in this manner That is a very simple demonstration in psychohistory But so the aristocracy"

"That’s bad"

"Not necessarily All is taken into account"

"But is that why I’ about ated"

"Are you in danger, sir?"

"Oh, yes There is probability of 17 that I will be executed, but of course that will not stop the project We have taken that into account as well Well, never mind You will meet me, I suppose, at the University tomorrow?"

"I will," said Gaal

5

COMMISSION OF PUBLIC SAFETY The aristocratic coterie rose to power after the assassination of Cleon I, last of the Entuns In thethe centuries of instability and uncertainty in the Ireat faenerated eventually into a blind instrument for maintenance of the status quo They were not completely removed as a power in the state until after the accession of the last strong Emperor, Cleon H The first Chief Co of the Commission’s decline can be traced to the trial of Hari Seldon two years before the beginning of the Foundational Era That trial is described in Gaal Dornick’s biography of Hari Seldon

ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA

Gaal did not carry out his pro by a muted buzzer He answered it, and the voice of the desk clerk, as ht be, informed him that he was under detention at the orders of the Co to the door and found it would no longer open He could only dress and wait

They came for him and took him elsewhere, but it was still detention They asked him questions most politely It was all very civilized He explained that he was a provincial of Synnax; that he had attended such and such schools and obtained a Doctor of Matheree on such and such a date He had applied for a position on Dr Seldon’s staff and had been accepted Over and over again, he gave these details; and over and over again, they returned to the question of his joining the Seldon Project How had he heard of it; ere to be his duties; what secret instructions had he received; as it all about?

He answered that he did not know He had no secret instructions He was a scholar and a mathematician He had no interest in politics

And finally the gentle inquisitor asked, "When will Trantor be destroyed?"

Gaal faltered, "I could not say of e"

"Could you say of anyone’s?"

"How could I speak for another?" He felt warm; overwarm

The inquisitor said, "Has anyone told you of such destruction; set a date?" And, as the young man hesitated, he went on, "You have been followed, doctor We were at the airport when you arrived; on the observation tohen you waited for your appointment; and, of course, ere able to overhear your conversation with Dr Seldon"

Gaal said, "Then you know his views on the matter"

"Perhaps But ould like to hear them from you"

"He is of the opinion that Trantor would be destroyed within three centuries"

"He proved it, uh mathematically?"

"Yes, he did," defiantly

"You maintain the uh mathematics to be valid, I suppose

"If Dr Seldon vouches for it, it is valid"

"Then ill return"

"Wait I have a right to a lawyer I dehts as an Imperial citizen"

"You shall have them"

And he did

It was a tall man that eventually entered, a man whose face seemed all vertical lines and so thin that one could wonder whether there was room for a smile

Gaal looked up He felt disheveled and wilted So much had happened, yet he had been on Trantor not more than thirty hours

The man said, "I am Lors Avakim Dr Seldon has directed me to represent you"

"Is that so? Well, then, look here I de held without cause I’" He slashed his hands outward, pal with the E the contents of a flat folder onto the floor If Gaal had had the stoal forms, metal thin and tapelike, adapted for insertion within the snized a pocket recorder

Avaki no attention to Gaal’s outburst, finally looked up He said, "The Commission will, of course, have a spy beaainst the law, but they will use one nevertheless"

Gaal ground his teeth

"However," and Avakim seated himself deliberately, "the recorder I have on the table, which is a perfectly ordinary recorder to all appearances and performs it duties well has the additional property of co they will not find out at once"

"Then I can speak"

"Of course"